Former Special Prosecutor Martin Amidu has warned that Ghana risks political instability similar to Guinea Bissau’s recent military coup if the current administration fails to address elite corruption and impunity. In a November 28, 2025 letter to a friend, Amidu drew parallels between Bissau’s governance failures and emerging patterns under President John Mahama’s government.
Military officers deposed Guinea Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo on November 26, 2025, one day before provisional election results were expected to be announced. General Horta Inta-A was sworn in as transitional president on November 27, 2025. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) suspended Guinea Bissau from its decision making bodies following an emergency meeting late Thursday.
Amidu, Ghana’s first Special Prosecutor from 2018 to 2020, stated that if he were among the coup makers in Bissau, he would hold President Embalo hostage and charge him with corruption rather than allow evacuation. He anticipated ECOWAS suspension could push Guinea Bissau to join the Alliance of Sahelian States, noting Bissau has coastal access unlike Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
The former Attorney General expressed concern about what he termed the circulation of elites theory proving correct again in Ghana. He criticized President Mahama’s government for having too many Lions while Foxes are ignored within the National Democratic Congress (NDC) itself. Amidu warned that Speaker Alban Bagbin is presiding over abuse of super majority power instead of being magnanimous in victory.
Amidu predicted obnoxious laws will soon be passed using the super majority, and national metals will be signed away to Central European entrepreneurs working with local partners on grounds of international relations and diplomacy with parliamentary approval. He specifically referenced lithium resources as an example of potential giveaways.
The governance analyst drew from his experience during Ghana’s Provisional National Defence Council (PNDC) era to illustrate consequences of elite corruption. Amidu served as PNDC Secretary and Deputy Secretary for Upper East Region between 1982 and 1993. He recalled introducing Burkinabe leaders Blaise Compaore and Thomas Sankara to the Castle in May 1983, when the latter was still under house arrest.
Former President Jerry Rawlings used to tell Amidu that his neck was on the block, referring to fears of the circulation of elite theory leading to another coup where he could be collateral damage like General Ignatius Kutu Acheampong and others during June 4, 1979. Amidu noted that Compaore’s constitutional government in Burkina Faso eventually fell despite their friendship.
The former Special Prosecutor expressed particular alarm about the Bawku conflict in northern Ghana. He stated more people have died there since January 7, 2025 than under eight years of former President Nana Akufo Addo’s New Patriotic Party (NPP) regime without an end in sight. Amidu suggested that as long as killings continue, Members of Parliament have brighter chances of returning to parliament, describing it as part of the political economy of conflict.
Amidu also highlighted the Gbenyiri conflict, noting displaced people remain in domestic exile or across international borders without resources to appease traditional authorities so they can return home. He criticized the contradiction where displaced persons are called settlers in their own country under the 1992 Constitution, while those who own big houses and made enormous wealth in Accra but are not Gas are considered citizens of Ghana.
The former Attorney General warned that weaponizing security agencies and the military to conduct unlawful swoops on masses of innocent youthful citizens is dangerous in any democracy, particularly when chieftaincy and other conflicts exist around the country. He stated emerging sycophancy from a partisan elite looking for their turn to eat is blinding or deluding President Mahama.
Amidu emphasized he wants Mahama to see reality and stabilize Ghana for a better future, which is why he writes often about national events. As a foundation member of the NDC who supported Mahama during elections, Amidu said he has a duty to tell the president the truth rather than what he wishes to hear, which appears to be Mahama’s major deficiency.
The governance expert called on ECOWAS and Africa to wake up to the reality of the times and the intelligence of youth, many of whom are unemployed but discerning. He acknowledged his generation failed to take Ghana to the promised land and rather led it to where it is today. Amidu stressed that Africa must learn lessons from each country’s military and democratic failings.
Martin Alamisi Burnes Kaiser Amidu served as Attorney General and Minister for Justice in Ghana from 2011 to 2012 and then as First Special Prosecutor from 2018 until his resignation in 2020, citing political interference by President Nana Akufo Addo. He gained prominence for introducing the word gargantuan into Ghanaian political discourse during investigations of the Woyome scandal, one of the highest profile corruption cases at the time.
Guinea Bissau has been shaken by at least nine coups and attempted coups between 1974, when it gained independence from Portugal, and 2020, when Embalo took office. The country is a notorious transit point for cocaine bound for Europe. The African Union Commission Chairperson unequivocally condemned the military coup that led to the arrest of President Embalo and senior military officers on November 26, 2025, while the nation was on the verge of announcing electoral results.
Amidu’s letter reflected broader concerns about democratic backsliding in West Africa, where several nations have experienced military takeovers since 2020. His analysis connected historical patterns of elite circulation with contemporary governance challenges facing Ghana and other African democracies.
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